Treasury set to update borrowing estimates

Treasury yields are 3-6 basis points lower today, despite yen intervention. That’s a good sign ahead of today’s refunding update.

The initial projection for this quarter was $202 billion and the market reaction should be straight-forward: Anything higher will push up yields and anything lower will push down yields.

Even if there is a miss, it will likely flow into T-bills so I don’t see any particular risks further out the curve, though it will certainly speak to debt trajectory.

BMO suggests small a chance the numbers could be lower:

We have no strong bias in
this regard other than to observe that the solid Q1 underlying growth figures –
as evidenced by final sales to domestic purchasers – bodes well for tax
receipts which would lessen the need to meaningfully grow issuance in the near

This article was written by Adam Button at