It’s the biggest day of the month in the entire world of (Canadian) finance

Frequently, Canada has to share the jobs spotlight with it’s geographically-smaller neighbour to the south but today the loonie gets the spotlight all to itself.

Why no non-farm payrolls? I’ve explained this before but the full answer is that Bureau of Labor Statistics releases non-farm
payrolls on the fourth Friday following the week containing the 12th of a
given month, which in December’s case will be the 8th of the month. So
because November 12th fell on a Sunday that only leaves three
Fridays in between then and now, which is evidently not enough time to prepare the

But who cares? We’ve got Canadian data to trade. The consensus is +15K (FYI, the consensus is always +15-20K) and unemployment is expected to rise to 5.8% from 5.7%. As always, watch the full/part-time skew.

Recently, Canadian retail sales were very strong but yesterday’s GDP number was soft. The BAX market is fully priced for 100bps in cuts next year with a further 37% chance of another 25 bps.

For more, see the economic calendar.

This article was written by Adam Button at